13F
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Welch Group, LLC

13F equity value
$2.7B
Positions
308
Top 10 concentration
31.8%
Quarters / total new picks
32 / 291
13F equity value over time
$0M$1B$3B2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

"13F equity value" = market value of this filer's US-listed long equity positions only. It excludes cash, bonds, non-US and short positions, so it understates a fund's true assets under management — often by a lot.

Not significant Verdict

13F holdings are disclosed ~45 days after quarter-end, and they never reveal when within the quarter a fund actually bought. So any 13F-based summary is structurally late and blurred — this applies to every fund, including this one.

We backtested copying it anyway. Buying this fund's new positions the day each filing went public, over 32 quarters, returned +1.1% per quarter — versus +2.7% per quarter from simply owning every 13F stock. It beat that baseline in only 50.0% of quarters (excess t = -0.59, not statistically significant). Its filings tell you what it bought — not what you should buy.

Avg 2Q excess
-1.0%
t-stat
-0.59
Quarterly win rate
50%
Annualized excess
-6.5%
$1 → follow vs universe
$1.28 vs $2.09
Cumulative return: $1 invested in new picks vs universe
1.00 20180331: universe 1.04120180630: universe 0.95920180930: universe 1.00320181231: universe 0.99220190331: universe 0.97520190630: universe 1.04820190930: universe 1.12720191231: universe 0.90920200331: universe 1.09620200630: universe 1.21120200930: universe 1.48520201231: universe 1.55320210331: universe 1.56620210630: universe 1.69220210930: universe 1.51920211231: universe 1.29220220331: universe 1.38720220630: universe 1.28520220930: universe 1.38120221231: universe 1.28220230331: universe 1.35120230630: universe 1.30320230930: universe 1.47920231231: universe 1.54520240331: universe 1.58020240630: universe 1.72320240930: universe 1.70820241231: universe 1.59420250331: universe 1.73820250630: universe 1.79320250930: universe 2.01620251231: universe 2.085 20180331: follow 1.04420180630: follow 1.04720180930: follow 1.09820181231: follow 1.15020190331: follow 1.13520190630: follow 1.16220190930: follow 1.28520191231: follow 1.01420200331: follow 1.15920200630: follow 1.14020200930: follow 1.14920201231: follow 1.12920210331: follow 1.17520210630: follow 1.16420210930: follow 0.97920211231: follow 0.91120220331: follow 0.89520220630: follow 0.87620220930: follow 0.94820221231: follow 0.88820230331: follow 1.01620230630: follow 0.95520230930: follow 1.02520231231: follow 1.08220240331: follow 1.10620240630: follow 1.14620240930: follow 1.13420241231: follow 1.09220250331: follow 1.22220250630: follow 1.19220250930: follow 1.34720251231: follow 1.278 0.81 1.53 2.25 20182019202020212022202320242025 Follow Universe

Quarterly compounding, invested quarters only · entry 47 days after quarter-end (when 13F data becomes public)

Listed as facts. See the verdict above before treating this as signal.

Top 20 holdings of 308 · 2026 Q1

Ticker Value Weight QoQ
AAPL $95M
3.6%
HOLD
RTX $89M
3.4%
TRIM
CVX $89M
3.4%
HOLD
XOM $89M
3.3%
TRIM
JNJ $88M
3.3%
TRIM
JPM $81M
3.1%
HOLD
ABBV $80M
3.0%
HOLD
MSFT $79M
3.0%
ADD
NEE $79M
3.0%
HOLD
LMT $77M
2.9%
TRIM
SO $76M
2.8%
HOLD
CSCO $73M
2.8%
HOLD
IBM $71M
2.7%
HOLD
SFBS $71M
2.7%
TRIM
MCD $67M
2.5%
HOLD
HD $63M
2.4%
ADD
CINF $62M
2.3%
HOLD
TFC $61M
2.3%
HOLD
EMR $61M
2.3%
TRIM
VZ $60M
2.3%
HOLD

QoQ vs previous quarter's share count · NEW = new position · ADD/TRIM = ±2% shares · HOLD = unchanged.

Listed as facts. See the verdict above before treating this as signal.

New positions in 2026 Q1

Method & Limitations

Method: a "new position" = held this quarter, absent last quarter (options excluded; stocks with <50 prior holders excluded to filter spin-off artifacts). Entry 47 days after quarter-end — the first day the public could act on the filing. Benchmark = equal-weighted universe of all 13F-held stocks. Limitations: quarterly snapshots can't see intra-quarter trades; survivorship bias — funds that shut down are absent, which flatters the sample. Statistics, not advice.