CONFLUENCE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC
"13F equity value" = market value of this filer's US-listed long equity positions only. It excludes cash, bonds, non-US and short positions, so it understates a fund's true assets under management — often by a lot.
13F holdings are disclosed ~45 days after quarter-end, and they never reveal when within the quarter a fund actually bought. So any 13F-based summary is structurally late and blurred — this applies to every fund, including this one.
We backtested copying it anyway. Buying this fund's new positions the day each filing went public, over 32 quarters, returned +5.3% per quarter — versus +2.7% per quarter from simply owning every 13F stock. It beat that baseline in only 62.5% of quarters (excess t = 0.66, not statistically significant). Its filings tell you what it bought — not what you should buy.
Quarterly compounding, invested quarters only · entry 47 days after quarter-end (when 13F data becomes public)
Top 20 holdings of 283 · 2026 Q1
| Ticker | Value | Weight | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| SGOV | $177M | | TRIM |
| ADI | $172M | | TRIM |
| LMT | $163M | | TRIM |
| CVX | $160M | | TRIM |
| SNA | $158M | | TRIM |
| CB | $157M | | TRIM |
| HSY | $144M | | HOLD |
| WEC | $143M | | TRIM |
| LIN | $140M | | TRIM |
| ETR | $138M | | TRIM |
| FAST | $138M | | TRIM |
| SO | $137M | | TRIM |
| MDLZ | $122M | | ADD |
| GILD | $120M | | TRIM |
| CSCO | $120M | | TRIM |
| KMI | $117M | | TRIM |
| PGR | $115M | | TRIM |
| HON | $113M | | TRIM |
| AWK | $110M | | ADD |
| CL | $107M | | TRIM |
QoQ vs previous quarter's share count · NEW = new position · ADD/TRIM = ±2% shares · HOLD = unchanged.
New positions in 2026 Q1
Method & Limitations
Method: a "new position" = held this quarter, absent last quarter (options excluded; stocks with <50 prior holders excluded to filter spin-off artifacts). Entry 47 days after quarter-end — the first day the public could act on the filing. Benchmark = equal-weighted universe of all 13F-held stocks. Limitations: quarterly snapshots can't see intra-quarter trades; survivorship bias — funds that shut down are absent, which flatters the sample. Statistics, not advice.