13F
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Pale Fire Capital SE

13F equity value
$1.1B
Positions
60
Top 10 concentration
84.6%
Quarters / total new picks
12 / 109
13F equity value over time
$0M$569M$1B20222023202420252026

"13F equity value" = market value of this filer's US-listed long equity positions only. It excludes cash, bonds, non-US and short positions, so it understates a fund's true assets under management — often by a lot.

Not significant Verdict

13F holdings are disclosed ~45 days after quarter-end, and they never reveal when within the quarter a fund actually bought. So any 13F-based summary is structurally late and blurred — this applies to every fund, including this one.

We backtested copying it anyway. Buying this fund's new positions the day each filing went public, over 12 quarters, returned +12.9% per quarter — versus +4.3% per quarter from simply owning every 13F stock. It beat that baseline in only 66.7% of quarters (excess t = 0.75, not statistically significant). Its filings tell you what it bought — not what you should buy.

Avg 2Q excess
+5.5%
t-stat
0.75
Quarterly win rate
67%
Annualized excess
+34.3%
$1 → follow vs universe
$3.50 vs $1.63
Cumulative return: $1 invested in new picks vs universe
1.00 20230331: universe 1.05420230630: universe 1.01620230930: universe 1.15320231231: universe 1.20520240331: universe 1.23220240630: universe 1.34420240930: universe 1.33220241231: universe 1.24320250331: universe 1.35520250630: universe 1.39820250930: universe 1.57220251231: universe 1.626 20230331: follow 1.10320230630: follow 1.13620230930: follow 1.97920231231: follow 1.73620240331: follow 1.89920240630: follow 1.97520240930: follow 1.79420241231: follow 1.71920250331: follow 2.18620250630: follow 2.80320250930: follow 3.09620251231: follow 3.503 0.92 2.35 3.78 202320242025 Follow Universe

Quarterly compounding, invested quarters only · entry 47 days after quarter-end (when 13F data becomes public)

Listed as facts. See the verdict above before treating this as signal.

Top 20 holdings of 60 · 2026 Q1

Ticker Value Weight QoQ
BTG $316M
27.8%
ADD
DOLE $135M
11.8%
HOLD
GRPN $121M
10.7%
HOLD
ZD $117M
10.3%
ADD
PHR $72M
6.4%
NEW
COUR $61M
5.4%
NEW
LSPD $50M
4.3%
NEW
CARS $32M
2.8%
ADD
IAUX $32M
2.8%
HOLD
ANGI $27M
2.4%
ADD
PTON $27M
2.4%
NEW
BAX $27M
2.3%
TRIM
TDOC $19M
1.6%
ADD
LQDA $15M
1.3%
ADD
GAU $10M
0.9%
TRIM
MLYS $10M
0.9%
ADD
CMRC $8M
0.7%
ADD
GERN $7M
0.6%
ADD
KURA $7M
0.6%
ADD
WEAV $7M
0.6%
NEW

QoQ vs previous quarter's share count · NEW = new position · ADD/TRIM = ±2% shares · HOLD = unchanged.

Listed as facts. See the verdict above before treating this as signal.

New positions in 2026 Q1

Method & Limitations

Method: a "new position" = held this quarter, absent last quarter (options excluded; stocks with <50 prior holders excluded to filter spin-off artifacts). Entry 47 days after quarter-end — the first day the public could act on the filing. Benchmark = equal-weighted universe of all 13F-held stocks. Limitations: quarterly snapshots can't see intra-quarter trades; survivorship bias — funds that shut down are absent, which flatters the sample. Statistics, not advice.