13F
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Octagon Capital Advisors LP

13F equity value
$904M
Positions
29
Top 10 concentration
68.6%
Quarters / total new picks
15 / 72
13F equity value over time
$0M$452M$904M2020202120222023202420252026

"13F equity value" = market value of this filer's US-listed long equity positions only. It excludes cash, bonds, non-US and short positions, so it understates a fund's true assets under management — often by a lot.

Negative Verdict

13F holdings are disclosed ~45 days after quarter-end, and they never reveal when within the quarter a fund actually bought. So any 13F-based summary is structurally late and blurred — this applies to every fund, including this one.

We backtested copying it. Buying this fund's new positions the day each filing went public, over 15 quarters, returned -4.0% per quarter versus +2.4% from simply owning every 13F stock — it beat that baseline in only 26.7% of quarters (excess t = -2.79). Copying it would have systematically underperformed the simplest possible strategy.

Avg 2Q excess
-24.0%
t-stat
-2.79
Quarterly win rate
27%
Annualized excess
-33.7%
$1 → follow vs universe
$0.34 vs $1.37
Cumulative return: $1 invested in new picks vs universe
1.00 20210630: universe 1.08020211231: universe 0.91920220930: universe 0.98720221231: universe 0.91720230331: universe 0.96620230630: universe 0.93120230930: universe 1.05720231231: universe 1.10520240331: universe 1.13020240930: universe 1.12020241231: universe 1.04520250331: universe 1.13920250630: universe 1.17520250930: universe 1.32120251231: universe 1.367 20210630: follow 0.98620211231: follow 0.58720220930: follow 0.55620221231: follow 0.75420230331: follow 0.56720230630: follow 0.38920230930: follow 0.47820231231: follow 0.49920240331: follow 0.41820240930: follow 0.36620241231: follow 0.28920250331: follow 0.27520250630: follow 0.28820250930: follow 0.43920251231: follow 0.341 0.25 0.86 1.48 20212022202320242025 Follow Universe

Quarterly compounding, invested quarters only · entry 47 days after quarter-end (when 13F data becomes public)

Listed as facts. See the verdict above before treating this as signal.

Top 20 holdings of 29 · 2026 Q1

Ticker Value Weight QoQ
DNTH $163M
18.1%
TRIM
COGT $90M
10.0%
HOLD
ABVX $75M
8.3%
TRIM
ALMS $62M
6.9%
ADD
DFTX $46M
5.1%
NEW
AVBP $45M
5.0%
HOLD
TSHA $40M
4.4%
HOLD
KYMR $35M
3.9%
TRIM
MIRM $31M
3.5%
NEW
BIOA $31M
3.4%
ADD
CNTA $30M
3.3%
HOLD
KALV $29M
3.2%
ADD
XENE $28M
3.1%
NEW
TERN $28M
3.1%
NEW
OCUL $27M
3.0%
ADD
PALI $18M
2.0%
ADD
TRVI $18M
2.0%
TRIM
IRON $17M
1.9%
NEW
AKTS $17M
1.9%
NEW
CNTX $14M
1.5%
NEW

QoQ vs previous quarter's share count · NEW = new position · ADD/TRIM = ±2% shares · HOLD = unchanged.

Listed as facts. See the verdict above before treating this as signal.

New positions in 2026 Q1

CATXIRONMIRMTERNXENE

Method & Limitations

Method: a "new position" = held this quarter, absent last quarter (options excluded; stocks with <50 prior holders excluded to filter spin-off artifacts). Entry 47 days after quarter-end — the first day the public could act on the filing. Benchmark = equal-weighted universe of all 13F-held stocks. Limitations: quarterly snapshots can't see intra-quarter trades; survivorship bias — funds that shut down are absent, which flatters the sample. Statistics, not advice.